Record crops forecasted

By American Farm Bureau Federationfarm-bureua-usa

The November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released by the Agriculture Department forecasts a record corn crop. November’s WASDE report projected the 2013 corn crop at 13.989 billion bushels will be a record crop, if realized, and more than a 3.2 billion bushel increase over the drought-stricken 2012 corn crop. The previous record for corn production was set in 2009.

“The seasonable fall weather across much of the nation helped late-planted crops develop and increased yield projections from the September report,” explained Todd Davis, American Farm Bureau Federation economist.

The USDA report predicts 2013-2014 corn ending stocks of 1.887 billion bushels, which is about a 130 percent increase in stocks from 2012-13.

“The ending-stocks ratio for corn is projected at 14.6 percent, which would be the largest stock-use ratio since 2005. This increase in stocks will likely cause prices to decline from a marketing-average price of $6.89 per bushel for 2012-2013 to a projected $4.50 per bushel for 2013-2014,” said Davis. The 2013 corn yield is estimated at 160.4 bushels per acre, up about 5 bushels from the last report in September.

The 2013 soybean crop yield is projected at 43 bushels per acre, up from the September report. The projected soybean crop for 2013-2014 is 3.258 billion bushels, also up slightly from the previous estimate.

Soybean ending stocks for 2013-2014 are projected up 21 percent to 170 million bushels. The projected marketing-year average price for soybeans is $12.15 per bushel, down from last year’s price of $14.40 per bushel.

The November report provided a much-needed update to the size of the 2013 corn and soybean crop as the October report was not released due to the government shutdown. The November report provides an updated projection on harvested acres and yield as there was still some uncertainty on the effect of the wet spring weather on acres planted. The very seasonable fall helped late planted crops develop and increased the yield projections from the September report.

Looking ahead, “U.S. and global corn stocks are projected to rebuild to levels not seen in several years,” said Davis. Further, “U.S. soybean stocks will remain tight for the 2013-14 marketing-year while world stocks are projected to increase to the largest in three years. It appears that U.S. soybean prices have greater fundamental support compared to corn. Corn bears the greater downside price risk at this point,” he concluded.


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